MeritValue

Surgery Partners, Inc.

SGRYdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Surgery Partners, Inc. earns about -5% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 76% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.06 and $68.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.23B1$2.54B2$2.74B3$3.11B3$3.31B3
Net income−$70.9M4−$54.6M5−$11.9M6−$168.1M6−$77.9M6
Operating cash flow$87.1M7$158.8M8$293.8M9$300.1M9$274.3M9
Capital expenditure$57.6M10$80.6M11$88.8M12$90.4M12$78.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$29.5M7$78.2M8$205M9$209.7M9$195.6M9
Total debt$2.96B13$2.63B14$2.8B15$3.4B16$3.74B17
Cash & equivalents$389.9M18$282.9M19$195.9M20$269.5M21$239.9M21
Diluted shares72.4M92.0M125.6M126.1M127.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$134.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$293.64

10 shares is a claim on $134.65 of net worth that earned you −$6.12 and generated $15.38 of cash last year, against $293.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -3%FY23 -1%FY24 -9%FY25 -5%

It earned about -5% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+76% shares · 5y

Share count is up 76% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 26% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.06 and $68.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$205M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$205M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$4.45
Base20.0%$25.06
Bull20.0%$25.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001638833-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001638833-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001638833-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001638833-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001638833-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001638833-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001638833-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001638833-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001638833-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001638833-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001638833-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001638833-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001638833-22-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001638833-23-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001638833-24-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001638833-25-000053 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001638833-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001638833-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001638833-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001638833-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001638833-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)