Sagimet Biosciences Inc.

SGMTdata completeness 63%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Sagimet Biosciences Inc. earns about -35% on equity, but has diluted owners by 17420% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	$2M¹	—	—
Net income	−$30.5M²	−$27.9M³	−$45.6M⁴	−$51M⁴
Operating cash flow	−$24.5M⁵	−$23.8M⁶	−$42.4M⁷	−$45.7M⁷
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$158,000⁸	$75.1M⁹	$75.8M¹⁰	$35M¹⁰
Diluted shares	184,619	10.5M	31.4M	32.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$34.43

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$15.78

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $34.43 of net worth that earned you −$15.78 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-35% avg · 4y

FY22 —FY23 -31%FY24 -29%FY25 -46%

It earned an average -35% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+17420% shares · 4y

Share count is up 17420% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002747 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003812 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002747 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026140 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003812 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002747 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026140 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003812 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002747 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026140 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)