MeritValue

SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC.

SGIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC. earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.02 and $20.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.93B1$4.92B2$4.93B3$4.93B3$7.48B3
Net income$624.5M4$455.7M5$368.1M6$384.3M6$384.1M6
Operating cash flow$723.1M7$378.8M7$570.3M8$666.5M8$800.1M8
Capital expenditure$123.3M9$306.5M10$185.4M11$97.3M11$166.9M11
Free cash flow (derived)$599.8M7$72.3M7$384.9M8$569.2M8$633.2M8
Total debt$2.28B12$2.75B13$2.5B14$3.76B15$4.61B16
Cash & equivalents$300.7M17$69.4M17$74.9M18$1.71B18$134.9M18
Diluted shares204.3M180.3M177.3M178.2M209.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$148.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$220.21

10 shares is a claim on $148.57 of net worth that earned you $18.36 and generated $30.27 of cash last year, against $220.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 30%FY22 20%FY23 17%FY24 15%FY25 5%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 102% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.02 and $20.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$569.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$569.2M
Earnings Power Value
$19.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$384.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.5
Base1.6%$20.25
Bull6.6%$30.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206264-24-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206264-25-000058 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206264-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206264-24-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206264-25-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206264-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206264-23-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206264-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206264-24-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206264-25-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206264-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206264-22-000057 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206264-23-000060 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206264-24-000050 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001206264-25-000058 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001206264-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206264-23-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206264-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)