MeritValue

SAGA COMMUNICATIONS INC

SGAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SAGA COMMUNICATIONS INC earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.5 and $25.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$108.3M1$114.9M1$115.5M2$112.9M3$107.1M3
Net income$11.2M4$9.2M4$9.5M5$3.46M6−$7.9M6
Operating cash flow$19.1M7$17.1M7$15.4M8$13.8M9$5.46M9
Capital expenditure$3.97M10$5.99M10$4.36M11$3.77M12$3.04M12
Free cash flow (derived)$15.1M7$11.1M7$11M8$10M9$2.42M9
Total debt$013$014$014$10M15$10M15
Cash & equivalents$54.8M16$36.8M17$29.6M18$18.9M19$22.5M19
Diluted shares5.9M6.0M6.0M6.1M6.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$246.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.25

10 shares is a claim on $246.23 of net worth that earned you −$12.84 and generated $3.94 of cash last year, against $16.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 2%FY25 -6%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.5 and $25.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10M
Earnings Power Value
$15.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.27
Base0.0%$25.27
Bull5.0%$30.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003419 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004153 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043166 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003419 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043166 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003419 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043166 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003419 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004153 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043166 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003419 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043166 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003419 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043166 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)