MeritValue

SOUTHERN FIRST BANCSHARES INC

SFSTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SOUTHERN FIRST BANCSHARES INC earns about 50% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.97 and $76.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.4M1$4.2M2$4.04M3$5.56M3$6.28M3
Net income$46.7M4$29.1M5$13.4M6$15.5M6$30.4M6
Operating cash flow$78.1M7$50.3M8$17.7M9$25.6M9$30.5M9
Capital expenditure$26.5M10$14M11$1.24M12$785,00012$581,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$51.6M7$36.4M8$16.4M9$24.8M9$29.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$5.2M13$5.8M13$156.2M14$162.9M14$269.6M14
Diluted shares8.0M8.1M8.1M8.1M8.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$451.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.61
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $451.76 of net worth that earned you $37.21 and generated $36.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
50% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 15%FY23 58%FY24 47%FY25 112%

It earned about 50% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.97 and $76.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$73.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$24.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$76.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$24.8M
Earnings Power Value
$36.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $76.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$76.41
Base0.0%$76.41
Bull5.0%$86.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206774-24-000233 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206774-25-000099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206774-26-000084 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206774-24-000233 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206774-25-000099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206774-26-000084 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206774-24-000233 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206774-25-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206774-26-000084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206774-24-000233 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001206774-25-000099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206774-26-000084 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001206774-23-000172 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001206774-26-000084 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)