MeritValue

SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORP

SFNCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORP earns about 3% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.46 and $180.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$671.1M1$861.7M2$1.21B3$1.31B3$1.24B3
Net income$271.2M4$256.4M5$175.1M6$152.7M6−$397.6M6
Operating cash flow$277.8M7$322.2M8$541M9$425.9M9$449.5M9
Capital expenditure$47.9M10$35.3M11$33.1M12$45.5M12$38.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$229.9M7$286.9M8$507.9M9$380.4M9$411.4M9
Total debt$3.44B13$1.62B14$1.73B15$1.5B16$954.9M17
Cash & equivalents$1.65B18$682.1M19$614.1M19$687.4M19$711.9M19
Diluted shares110.2M124.5M126.8M126.1M134.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$253.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$29.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$70.88

10 shares is a claim on $253.78 of net worth that earned you −$29.51 and generated $30.53 of cash last year, against $70.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 -12%

It earned about 3% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 72% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.46 and $180.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$180.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$411.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$97.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$411.4M
Earnings Power Value
$13.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$175.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $97.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.82
Base20.0%$97.74
Bull20.0%$97.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007263 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008639 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011618 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007263 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008639 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011618 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007263 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008639 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011618 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007263 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008639 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011618 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003933 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005228 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007263 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008639 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011618 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008639 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011618 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)