MeritValue

Stitch Fix, Inc.

SFIXdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Stitch Fix, Inc. earns about -402% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.76 and $2.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.1B1$2.02B2$1.59B3$1.34B3$1.27B3
Net income−$8.88M4−$207.1M5−$172M6−$128.8M6−$28.7M6
Operating cash flow−$15.7M7$75.2M8$73.2M8$28.2M8$25.6M9
Capital expenditure$35.3M10$45M11$18.9M12$14M12$16.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$50.9M7$30.3M8$54.4M8$14.2M8$9.28M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$129.8M13$130.9M14$239.4M15$162.9M16$114M16
Diluted shares106.0M108.8M114.7M120.2M128.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$15.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.72
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $15.76 of net worth that earned you −$2.23 and generated $0.72 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-402% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 -76%FY23 -1500%FY24 -394%FY25 -25%

It earned about -402% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.76 and $2.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$14.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$14.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.76
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.46
Base4.0%$2.76
Bull9.0%$3.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001576942-23-000114 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001576942-24-000099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001628280-25-042782 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001576942-23-000114 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001576942-24-000099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001628280-25-042782 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001576942-23-000114 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001576942-24-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-08-02 · accession 0001628280-25-042782 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001576942-23-000114 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001576942-24-000099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001628280-25-042782 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001576942-22-000077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0001576942-23-000114 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0001576942-24-000099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-03 · accession 0001628280-25-042782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)