SAFEGUARD SCIENTIFICS INC

SFESdata completeness 63%15 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

SAFEGUARD SCIENTIFICS INC earns about 1% on invested capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$54.6M¹	−$37.6M²	$27M³	−$14.3M⁴	−$9.83M⁴
Operating cash flow	−$20M⁵	−$8.14M⁶	−$8.15M⁷	−$3.26M⁸	−$3.31M⁸
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$25M⁹	$15.6M¹⁰	$24.7M¹¹	$13.3M¹²	$9.5M¹²
Diluted shares	20.6M	20.8M	19.8M	16.3M	16.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$12.32

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$6.06

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $12.32 of net worth that earned you −$6.06 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

1% avg · 5y

FY19 89%FY20 -63%FY21 105%FY22 -53%FY23 -74%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-21-005171 (ProfitLoss)
10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-006038 (ProfitLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006178 (ProfitLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009415 (ProfitLoss)
10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-21-005171 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-006038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006178 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009415 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001437749-21-005171 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-006038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006178 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009415 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)