MeritValue

SMITHFIELD FOODS INC

SFDdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SMITHFIELD FOODS INC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.96 and $84.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2016FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.4B1$16.2B2$14.6B3$14.1B3$15.5B3
Net income$452.3M4$870M5$17M6$953M6$987M6
Operating cash flow—$521M7$688M8$916M8$1.06B8
Capital expenditure—$338M9$353M10$350M10$341M10
Free cash flow (derived)—$183M7$335M8$566M8$718M8
Total debt$4.53B11—$1.99B12$3.97B12$1.99B13
Cash & equivalents—$547M14$687M15$943M15$1.54B15
Diluted shares—380.1M380.1M380.1M392.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$173.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$50.57

10 shares is a claim on $173.19 of net worth that earned you $25.13 and generated $18.28 of cash last year, against $50.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY16 —FY23 12%FY23 -1%FY24 9%FY25 14%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 56% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.96 and $84.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$566M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$566M
Earnings Power Value
$22.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$870M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.45
Base20.0%$45.85
Bull20.0%$45.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2016-01-03 · accession 0000091388-16-000064 (SalesRevenueGoodsNet)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000091388-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091388-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2016-01-03 · accession 0000091388-16-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000091388-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091388-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000091388-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091388-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000091388-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091388-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2016-01-03 · accession 0000091388-16-000064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091388-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-28 · accession 0000091388-26-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000091388-25-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091388-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)