MeritValue

Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc.

SFBCdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.92 and $89.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$33.9M1$39.8M2$50.6M3$57.4M4$57.6M4
Net income$9.16M5$8.8M6$7.44M7$4.64M8$7.16M8
Operating cash flow$19.1M9$10.1M10$6.89M11$2.93M12$7.16M12
Capital expenditure$225,00013$398,00014$444,00015$76,00016$170,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$18.8M9$9.66M10$6.44M11$2.86M12$6.99M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$183.6M17$57.8M18$49.7M19$43.6M20$138.5M20
Diluted shares2.6M2.6M2.6M2.6M2.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$424.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $424.57 of net worth that earned you $27.78 and generated $27.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 31%FY23 42%FY24 50%FY25 —

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.92 and $89.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.44M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$89.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.44M
Earnings Power Value
$29.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.44M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $89.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$89.45
Base0.0%$89.45
Bull5.0%$98.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541119-23-000009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541119-24-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541119-25-000009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001541119-26-000008 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541119-23-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541119-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541119-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001541119-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541119-23-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541119-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541119-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001541119-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541119-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541119-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541119-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001541119-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541119-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541119-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541119-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001541119-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)