MeritValue

STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP

SFdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $64.39 and $72.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.62B1$2.95B2$2.71B3$3.29B4$3.77B4
Net income$824.9M5$662.2M6$522.5M7$731.4M7$683.8M7
Operating cash flow$872.1M8$1.16B9$499.3M10$490.4M10$1.12B10
Capital expenditure$188.2M11$82.3M12$52M13$73.8M13$62.1M13
Free cash flow (derived)$683.9M8$1.08B9$447.4M10$416.6M10$1.05B10
Total debt$1.11B14$1.11B15$1.12B16$616.6M17$617.4M17
Cash & equivalents$1.96B18$2.2B19$3.36B20$2.65B20$2.25B20
Diluted shares118.5M117.5M113.5M111.0M110.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$543.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$95.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$56.1

10 shares is a claim on $543.14 of net worth that earned you $62.13 and generated $95.86 of cash last year, against $56.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 19%FY23 37%FY24 41%FY25 31%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $64.39 and $72.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$447.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$447.4M
Earnings Power Value
$64.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$683.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.95
Base0.0%$72.95
Bull5.0%$87.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003201 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016475 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027702 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067130 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016475 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027702 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067130 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016475 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027702 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067130 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016475 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027702 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067130 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003201 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016475 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027702 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067130 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016475 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027702 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067130 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)