MeritValue

Sezzle Inc.

SEZLdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Sezzle Inc. earns about -86% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 82% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.06 and $72.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$114.8M1$12M2$60.6M3$139.4M4$235.9M4
Net income−$75.2M5−$38.1M6$7.1M7$78.5M8$133.1M8
Operating cash flow−$72.1M9$8.51M10−$25.7M11$130.6M12$209.9M12
Capital expenditure$686,03213$52,23614$81,60915$70,00016$655,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$72.8M9$8.46M10−$25.8M11$130.6M12$209.3M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$77M17$68.3M18$67.6M19$73.2M20$64.1M20
Diluted shares200.3M5.4M5.7M35.9M35.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.54
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $47.51 of net worth that earned you $37.25 and generated $58.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-86% avg · 5y
FY21 -199%FY22 -431%FY23 32%FY24 89%FY25 78%

It earned about -86% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−82% shares · 5y

Share count is down 82% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.06 and $72.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$72.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$130.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$130.6M
Earnings Power Value
$2.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$53.99
Base5.0%$66.62
Bull10.0%$81.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662991-23-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662991-24-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662991-25-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001662991-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662991-23-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662991-24-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662991-25-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001662991-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662991-23-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662991-24-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662991-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001662991-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662991-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662991-24-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662991-25-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001662991-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001662991-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662991-24-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662991-25-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001662991-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)