MeritValue

SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC.

SERAdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. earns about -47% on equity, but has diluted owners by 218% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$82,0001$268,0002$306,0003$77,0004$81,0004
Net income−$35M5−$44.2M6−$36.2M7−$32.9M8−$31.9M8
Operating cash flow−$31.6M9−$34.6M10−$27.2M11−$14.2M12−$25.6M12
Capital expenditure$1.3M13$791,00014$128,00015$56,00016$726,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$32.9M9−$35.4M10−$27.3M11−$14.2M12−$26.3M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$58.9M17$29.9M18$3.88M19$4.04M20$3.94M20
Diluted shares15.0M30.9M31.2M33.2M47.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$15.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.7
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $15.82 of net worth that earned you −$6.7 and generated −$5.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-47% avg · 5y
FY21 -25%FY22 -45%FY23 -52%FY24 -69%FY25 -42%

It earned an average -47% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+218% shares · 5y

Share count is up 218% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534969-23-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534969-24-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534969-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534969-23-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534969-24-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534969-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534969-23-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534969-24-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534969-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534969-23-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534969-24-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534969-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534969-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534969-24-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534969-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)