MeritValue

Septerna, Inc.

SEPNdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Septerna, Inc. earns about -23% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1933% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$151,0001$1.08M2$46M2
Net income$4.18M3−$71.8M4−$48.9M4
Operating cash flow−$38.7M5−$67.5M6$110.2M6
Capital expenditure$2.88M7$2.1M8$518,0008
Free cash flow (derived)−$41.6M5−$69.6M6$109.7M6
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$88.5M9$238.2M10$120.7M10
Diluted shares2.2M9.9M44.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$86.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.78
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $86.29 of net worth that earned you −$11.04 and generated $24.78 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-23% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 -31%FY25 -15%

It earned an average -23% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1933% shares · 3y

Share count is up 1933% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045745 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098507 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045745 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098507 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045745 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098507 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045745 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098507 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045745 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098507 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)