MeritValue

Senseonics Holdings, Inc.

SENSdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Senseonics Holdings, Inc. earns about -141% on equity, and has bought back 90% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.39M1$16.4M2$22.4M3$22.5M4$35.3M4
Net income−$302.5M5$142.1M6−$60.4M7−$78.6M8−$69.1M8
Operating cash flow−$56.1M9−$66.3M10−$70.2M11−$60.5M12−$59.1M12
Capital expenditure$210,00013$312,00014$350,00015$2.24M16$1.12M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$56.3M9−$66.6M10−$70.5M11−$62.7M12−$60.2M12
Total debt$59.8M17$56.4M18$41.2M19$34.7M20$35.6M20
Cash & equivalents$33.5M21$35.8M22$75.7M23$74.6M24$40.2M24
Diluted shares422.3M618.2M568.0M31.5M41.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.56
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.53

10 shares is a claim on $14.63 of net worth that earned you −$16.56 and generated −$14.44 of cash last year, against $8.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-141% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -169%FY24 —FY25 -113%

It earned an average -141% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−90% shares · 5y

Share count is down 90% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003952 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002218 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022298 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003952 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002218 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022298 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003952 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002218 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022298 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003952 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002218 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002044 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022298 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003952 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002218 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002044 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022298 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003952 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002218 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022298 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)