MeritValue

Seneca Foods Corp

SENEAdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Seneca Foods Corp earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 76107% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $68.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.47B1$1.39B2$1.51B3$1.46B3$1.58B3
Net income$126.1M4$46.2M5$9.23M6$63.3M6$41.2M6
Operating cash flow$183.2M7$30.2M8−$212.8M9−$83M9$335.5M9
Capital expenditure$71.4M10$53.4M11$70.6M12$36.6M12$37.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$111.7M7−$23.2M8−$283.4M9−$119.6M9$298.3M9
Total debt$197.2M13$227.2M14$886M15$1.21B15$465.9M16
Cash & equivalents$59.8M17$10.9M18$5.24M19$4.48M20$42.7M20
Diluted shares9,1588,7747.9M7.4M7.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$907.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$427.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$667.54

10 shares is a claim on $907.04 of net worth that earned you $59.07 and generated $427.35 of cash last year, against $667.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 6%FY23 1%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+76107% shares · 5y

Share count is up 76107% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 136% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$68.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$46.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$109.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-021172 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-020198 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020197 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-021172 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-020198 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020197 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-021172 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-020198 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020197 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-021172 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-020198 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020197 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-22-014782 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-021172 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-020198 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020197 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-22-014782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-021172 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-020198 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020197 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)