MeritValue

Seer, Inc.

SEERdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Seer, Inc. earns about -23% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.62M1$15.5M2$16.7M3$14.2M4$16.6M4
Net income−$71.2M5−$93M6−$86.3M7−$86.6M8−$73.6M8
Operating cash flow−$46.3M9−$60.8M10−$59.1M11−$46.1M12−$44.4M12
Capital expenditure$6.92M13$10.3M14$7.31M15$3.58M16$1.8M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$53.3M9−$71M10−$66.4M11−$49.7M12−$46.2M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$232.8M17$53.2M18$32.5M19$40.8M20$47.3M20
Diluted shares60.9M62.4M63.9M——

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-23% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -19%FY24 -24%FY25 -27%

It earned an average -23% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006564 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024967 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030878 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085481 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006564 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024967 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030878 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085481 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006564 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024967 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030878 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085481 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006564 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024967 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030878 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085481 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006564 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024967 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030878 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085481 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)