MeritValue

Vivid Seats Inc.

SEATdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Vivid Seats Inc. earns about -77% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$389.7M1$511.1M2$597.4M3$647.9M3$450.5M3
Net income−$5.02M4$70.8M5$69.4M6$13.4M6$806.1M6
Operating cash flow$175.8M7$14.4M8$147.3M9$53.9M9−$91.6M9
Capital expenditure$1.13M10$3.56M11$895,00012$4.23M12$2.16M12
Free cash flow (derived)$174.7M7$10.8M8$146.4M9$49.7M9−$93.8M9
Total debt$460.1M13$264.9M14$264.6M15$385M16$383.4M16
Cash & equivalents$489.5M17$251.5M18$125.5M19$243.5M20$102.7M20
Diluted shares——9.9M10.5M—

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-77% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 29%FY24 4%FY25 -263%

It earned an average -77% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028243 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037612 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037612 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037612 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037612 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006371 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028243 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037612 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103023 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006371 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037612 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)