Sea Ltd
SEdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on fileSea Ltd earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.45 and $95.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.96B1 | $12.4B2 | $11.5B3 | $14.7B3 | $19.6B3 |
| Net income | −$2.05B4 | −$1.65B5 | $150.7M6 | $444.3M6 | $1.58B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $208.6M7 | −$1.06B8 | $2.08B9 | $3.28B9 | $5.02B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $772.2M10 | $924.2M11 | $241.6M12 | $318.2M12 | $513.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$563.5M7 | −$1.98B8 | $1.84B9 | $2.96B9 | $4.51B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $9.25B13 | $6.03B14 | $2.81B15 | $2.41B16 | $4.16B16 |
| Diluted shares | 532.7M | 558.1M | 594.4M | 604.7M | 638.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $196.27 of net worth that earned you $24.73 and generated $70.68 of cash last year.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.45 and $95.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$2.96B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$2.96B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$150.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $72.76 |
| Base | 5.0% | $88.8 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $107.99 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-022429 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-084311 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-015366 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-022429 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-084311 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-015366 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-022429 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-084311 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-015366 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-022429 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-084311 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-015366 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-017021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-022429 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-084311 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-015366 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)