MeritValue

Stardust Power Inc.

SDSTdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$4.71M1$15.1M2$139,0002−$23.8M3−$15.7M3
Operating cash flow−$1.04M4−$1.53M5−$975,0005−$9.72M6−$8.28M6
Capital expenditure———$15,2377$4,4907
Free cash flow (derived)———−$9.73M6−$8.28M6
Total debt——$72,9678$10M9$205,4039
Cash & equivalents$842,00010$101,00010$1.27M11$912,57412$3.48M12
Diluted shares——41.5M4.3M7.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$7.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21.29
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.28

10 shares is a claim on −$7.87 of net worth that earned you −$21.29 and generated −$11.21 of cash last year, against $0.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−82% shares · 5y

Share count is down 82% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 182% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$139,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024925 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-024108 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012709 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024925 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-024108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012709 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012709 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000969 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012709 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-024108 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000969 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012709 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)