Smith Douglas Homes Corp.
SDHCdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. earns about 125% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.07 and $33.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $764.6M1 | $975.5M2 | $971.1M2 |
| Net income | $123.2M3 | $16.1M4 | $10.7M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $76.3M5 | $19.1M6 | −$31.3M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.31M7 | $3.89M8 | $5.52M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $74.9M5 | $15.2M6 | −$36.9M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $19.8M9 | $22.4M10 | $12.7M10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 9.1M | 9.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $94.13 of net worth that earned you $11.61 and generated −$40.01 of cash last year.
It earned about 125% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.07 and $33.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$15.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$15.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$16.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $25.02 |
| Base | 5.0% | $30.75 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $37.59 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001982518-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017245 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001982518-25-000007 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017245 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001982518-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017245 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001982518-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017245 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001982518-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017245 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)