MeritValue

SunCar Technology Group Inc.

SDAdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SunCar Technology Group Inc. earns about -30% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$187.9M1$282.4M2$363.7M2$441.9M2
Net income−$18.1M3−$11.9M4−$17.6M4−$64.5M4
Operating cash flow−$25.6M5−$16.1M6−$27.7M6$11.8M6
Capital expenditure$1.28M7$4.35M8$4.93M8$588,0008
Free cash flow (derived)−$26.9M5−$20.5M6−$32.6M6$11.3M6
Total debt—$74.7M9$83M10$83.6M10
Cash & equivalents$34.5M11$21.2M12$30.9M12$26.9M12
Diluted shares81.6M81.6M85.4M96.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.71

10 shares is a claim on $1.24 of net worth that earned you −$6.71 and generated $1.17 of cash last year, against $8.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-30% avg · 4y
FY21 —FY22 -11%FY23 -13%FY24 -67%

It earned an average -30% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 4y

Share count is up 18% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036833 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036833 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036086 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036833 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036833 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036833 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036086 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-036833 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)