MeritValue

SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC

SDdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC earns about 49% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.71 and $21.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$168.9M1$254.3M2$148.6M3$125.3M3$156.4M3
Net income$116.7M4$242.2M5$60.9M6$63M6$70.2M6
Operating cash flow$110.3M7$164.7M8$115.6M9$73.9M9$100.1M9
Capital expenditure$11.6M10$44.1M11$26.4M12$26.4M12$58.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$98.7M7$120.6M8$89.2M9$47.5M9$41.5M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$137.3M14$255.7M15$252.4M16$98.1M16$111M16
Diluted shares37.3M37.2M37.1M37.2M36.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$138.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.25
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $138.42 of net worth that earned you $19.02 and generated $11.25 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
49% avg · 5y
FY21 108%FY22 77%FY23 32%FY24 11%FY25 16%

It earned about 49% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.71 and $21.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$47.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$21.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$47.5M
Earnings Power Value
$19.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $21.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.41
Base0.0%$21.41
Bull5.0%$25.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009706 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015318 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009706 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015318 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009706 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015318 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009706 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015318 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-005741 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008082 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015318 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)