MeritValue

Scilex Holding Co

SCLXdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Scilex Holding Co earns about -64% on equity, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$31.3M1$38M1$46.7M2$56.6M3$30.3M3
Net income−$88.4M4−$23.4M4−$114.3M5−$72.8M6−$374.1M6
Operating cash flow−$28.7M7−$21.3M7−$20.7M8$19.3M9$3.82M9
Capital expenditure$010$7,00010$30,00011$012$133,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$28.7M7−$21.3M7−$20.7M8$19.3M9$3.68M9
Total debt$139.1M13$013$108.4M14$34.9M15$83.3M15
Cash & equivalents$4.34M16$2.18M17$3.92M18$3.27M19$4.96M19
Diluted shares132.9M134.2M130.3M10,14511,034

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$188,309.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$339,000.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$3,337.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$75,459.49

10 shares is a claim on −$188,309.77 of net worth that earned you −$339,000.36 and generated $3,337.86 of cash last year, against $75,459.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-64% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -64%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -64% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.68M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.68M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029473 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047800 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151455 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029473 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047800 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151455 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029473 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047800 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151455 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029473 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047800 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151455 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006493 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047800 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151455 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006493 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029473 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047800 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151455 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)