MeritValue

B-Scada, Inc.

SCDAdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

B-Scada, Inc. earns about 44% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.06 and $0.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2011FY 2012FY 2013FY 2014FY 2015
Revenue$980,9091$1.07M2$1.55M3$2.04M4$1.94M4
Net income$41,6765$152,3736$871,2487$1.03M8−$398,2218
Operating cash flow−$164,0229$132,27210$421,99011$205,13312−$47,38412
Capital expenditure—−$5,57213$8,59814$95,30915$19,28315
Free cash flow (derived)—$137,84410$413,39211$109,82412−$66,66712
Total debt———$236,98216$204,85416
Cash & equivalents$13,95817$94,83118$252,57119$1.14M19$840,77719
Diluted shares24.6M24.6M24.7M25.3M27.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.15
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.08

10 shares is a claim on $0.84 of net worth that earned you −$0.15 and generated −$0.02 of cash last year, against $0.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
44% avg · 5y
FY11 —FY12 —FY13 109%FY14 39%FY15 -17%

It earned about 44% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.06 and $0.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$109,824
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$109,824
Earnings Power Value
$0.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$152,373
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.08
Base0.0%$0.08
Bull5.0%$0.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2011-10-31 · accession 0001393905-13-000047 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2012-10-31 · accession 0001393905-14-000031 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2013-10-31 · accession 0001393905-15-000036 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2014-10-31 · accession 0001393905-16-000706 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2011-10-31 · accession 0001393905-13-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2012-10-31 · accession 0001393905-14-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2013-10-31 · accession 0001393905-15-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2014-10-31 · accession 0001393905-16-000706 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2011-10-31 · accession 0001393905-13-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2012-10-31 · accession 0001393905-14-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2013-10-31 · accession 0001393905-15-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2014-10-31 · accession 0001393905-16-000706 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2012-10-31 · accession 0001393905-13-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2013-10-31 · accession 0001393905-15-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2014-10-31 · accession 0001393905-16-000706 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2014-10-31 · accession 0001393905-16-000706 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2011-10-31 · accession 0001393905-14-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2012-10-31 · accession 0001393905-15-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2013-10-31 · accession 0001393905-16-000706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)