MeritValue

SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/

SCCOdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/ earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.48 and $166.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.9B1$10B2$9.9B3$11.4B3$13.4B3
Net income$3.41B4$2.65B5$2.43B6$3.39B6$4.35B6
Operating cash flow$4.29B7$2.8B8$3.57B9$4.42B9$4.75B9
Capital expenditure$892.3M10$948.5M11$1.01B12$1.03B12$1.33B12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.4B7$1.85B8$2.56B9$3.39B9$3.43B9
Total debt$13.1B13$12.5B14$12.5B15$12.5B16$13.5B16
Cash & equivalents$3B17$2.07B18$1.15B19$3.26B20$4.3B20
Diluted shares773.1M773.1M795.3M802.9M826.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$133.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$52.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$163.34

10 shares is a claim on $133.54 of net worth that earned you $52.6 and generated $41.46 of cash last year, against $163.34 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 14%FY23 13%FY24 18%FY25 21%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.48 and $166.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$166.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$3.39B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$102.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$3.39B
Earnings Power Value
$42.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.39B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$39.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $102.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.55
Base15.7%$102.05
Bull20.0%$122.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002119 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021492 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002119 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002017 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021492 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002119 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021492 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002119 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021492 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002328 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002119 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021492 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002328 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021492 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)