MeritValue

STARBUCKS CORP

SBUXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STARBUCKS CORP earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.19 and $51.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.1B1$32.3B2$36B3$36.2B3$37.2B3
Net income$4.2B4$3.28B5$4.12B6$3.76B6$1.86B6
Operating cash flow$5.99B7$4.4B8$6.01B9$6.1B9$4.75B9
Capital expenditure$1.47B10$1.84B11$2.33B12$2.78B12$2.31B12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.52B7$2.56B8$3.68B9$3.32B9$2.44B9
Total debt$29.2B13$29.9B14$30.8B15$31.1B16$32.1B16
Cash & equivalents$6.46B17$2.82B18$3.55B18$3.29B18$3.22B18
Diluted shares1.19B1.16B1.15B1.14B1.14B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$71.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$282.06

10 shares is a claim on −$71.04 of net worth that earned you $16.29 and generated $21.42 of cash last year, against $282.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 20%FY23 24%FY24 21%FY25 11%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.19 and $51.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$3.32B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$3.32B
Earnings Power Value
$34.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.76B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.21
Base9.1%$35.97
Bull14.1%$49.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000829224-23-000058 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000829224-24-000057 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000829224-25-000114 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000829224-23-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000829224-24-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000829224-25-000114 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000829224-23-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000829224-24-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000829224-25-000114 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000829224-23-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000829224-24-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000829224-25-000114 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000829224-22-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000829224-23-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000829224-24-000057 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0000829224-25-000114 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000829224-21-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000829224-25-000114 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)