MeritValue

Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.

SBRAdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$155.5M1$186.7M2$236.2M3$284.6M3$356.9M3
Net income−$113.3M4−$77.6M5$13.8M6$126.7M6$155.6M6
Operating cash flow$356.4M7$315.7M8$300.6M9$310.5M9$348.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.39B10$2.51B11$2.41B12$2.42B13$2.53B14
Cash & equivalents$112M15$49.3M16$41.3M17$60.5M18$71.5M18
Diluted shares219.1M230.9M232.8M236.0M244.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$115.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.36
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$103.43

10 shares is a claim on $115.41 of net worth that earned you $6.36 last year, against $103.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492298-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492298-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492298-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492298-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492298-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492298-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492298-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492298-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492298-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492298-22-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492298-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492298-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001492298-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001492298-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492298-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492298-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492298-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001492298-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)