Star Bulk Carriers Corp.
SBLKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileStar Bulk Carriers Corp. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.35 and $43.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.43B1 | $1.44B2 | $949.3M3 | $1.27B3 | $1.04B3 |
| Net income | $680.5M4 | $566M5 | $173.6M6 | $304.7M6 | $84.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $767.1M7 | $769.9M8 | $335.8M9 | $471.2M9 | $295.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $130.1M10 | $25.4M11 | $18.1M12 | $55.1M12 | $84M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $636.9M7 | $744.5M8 | $317.7M9 | $416.1M9 | $211.9M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $450.3M13 | $269.8M14 | $227.5M15 | $425.1M15 | $488.5M15 |
| Diluted shares | 101.5M | 102.5M | 98.9M | 108.7M | 115.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $212.2 of net worth that earned you $7.29 and generated $18.36 of cash last year.
It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.35 and $43.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$317.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$317.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$304.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $43.56 |
| Base | 0.0% | $43.56 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $53.08 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950157-24-000400 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950157-25-000241 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950157-26-000397 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950157-24-000400 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950157-25-000241 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950157-26-000397 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950157-24-000400 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950157-25-000241 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950157-26-000397 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950157-24-000400 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950157-25-000241 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950157-26-000397 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950157-24-000400 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950157-25-000241 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950157-26-000397 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)