MeritValue

SAFE BULKERS, INC.

SBdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

SAFE BULKERS, INC. earns about 15% on equity, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$174.3M1$172.6M2$77.4M3$97.4M3$38.6M3
Operating cash flow$217.2M4$218M5$122.2M6$130.5M6$102.3M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$720.6M7$845.2M8$1.03B9$1.09B10$1.1B10
Cash & equivalents$101M11$49.2M12$48.2M13$81.1M13$141.6M13
Diluted shares113.7M120.7M113.6M107.6M103.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.74
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$106.48

10 shares is a claim on $80.62 of net worth that earned you $3.74 last year, against $106.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
15% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 22%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 5%

It earned an average 15% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 52% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$97.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007809 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011696 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014408 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007809 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011696 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014408 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006448 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007809 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011696 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014408 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007809 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011696 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014408 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)