MeritValue

SAP SE

SAPdata completeness 88%1 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

SAP SE earns about 15% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2017
Revenue$28.2B1
Net income$4.83B2
Operating cash flow$6.07B3
Capital expenditure—
Free cash flow (derived)—
Total debt$6.26B4
Cash & equivalents$4.82B5
Diluted shares1.23B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$249.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.32
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$50.99

10 shares is a claim on $249.63 of net worth that earned you $39.32 last year, against $50.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 1y
FY17 15%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 1 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 1y

Share count is roughly flat over 1 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 1 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
$47.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-013050 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-013050 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-013050 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-19-011304 (Borrowings)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-013050 (CashAndCashEquivalents)