MeritValue

SANMINA CORP

SANMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SANMINA CORP earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.18 and $70.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.74B1$7.92B2$8.94B3$7.57B3$8.13B3
Net income$249.5M4$240.4M5$310M6$222.5M6$245.9M6
Operating cash flow$338.3M7$330.9M8$235.2M9$340.2M9$620.7M9
Capital expenditure$73.3M10$138.6M11$191.4M12$111.2M12$147.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$265M7$192.2M8$43.8M9$229M9$473.3M9
Total debt$330.3M13$346.7M14$338.3M15$317.3M16$300.5M16
Cash & equivalents$650M17$529.9M18$667.6M19$625.9M20$926.3M20
Diluted shares67.1M63.1M59.8M57.0M55.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$460.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$85.78
Debt you’d be carrying
$54.46

10 shares is a claim on $460.18 of net worth that earned you $44.56 and generated $85.78 of cash last year, against $54.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 16%FY23 18%FY24 12%FY25 14%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.18 and $70.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$66.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$229M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$70.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$229M
Earnings Power Value
$46.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$245.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $70.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$70.64
Base0.0%$70.64
Bull5.0%$84.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000897723-23-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000897723-24-000056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000897723-25-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000897723-23-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000897723-24-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000897723-25-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000897723-23-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000897723-24-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000897723-25-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000897723-23-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000897723-24-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000897723-25-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001104659-23-062827 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000897723-23-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000897723-24-000056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000897723-25-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001104659-23-062827 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000897723-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000897723-24-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000897723-25-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)