MeritValue

Banco Santander, S.A.

SANdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Banco Santander, S.A. earns about 11% on equity, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$8.12B1$9.61B2$11.1B3$12.6B3$14.1B3
Operating cash flow$56.7B4$27.7B5$5.02B6−$24.2B6−$14.8B6
Capital expenditure$10B7$9.07B8$11.4B9$8.49B9$5.85B9
Free cash flow (derived)$46.7B4$18.6B5−$6.43B6−$32.6B6−$20.7B6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$210.7B10$223.1B10$220.3B11$192.2B11$152.3B11
Diluted shares17.34B16.79B16.18B15.15B14.69B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$76.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.6
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $76.76 of net worth that earned you $9.6 and generated −$14.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
11% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 10%FY23 11%FY24 12%FY25 13%

It earned an average 11% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
€7.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€11.1B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€12.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891478-24-000038 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891478-25-000054 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891478-26-000030 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891478-24-000038 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891478-25-000054 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891478-26-000030 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891478-24-000038 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891478-25-000054 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891478-26-000030 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891478-25-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891478-26-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalents)