MeritValue

Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc.

SAMGdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. earns about 205% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.24 and $32.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$131.6M1$123.2M2$117.4M3$123.7M3$125.3M3
Net income$14.7M4$18.8M5$9.09M6$9.54M6$4.89M6
Operating cash flow$44.3M7$23.4M8$21M9$21.6M9$18.6M9
Capital expenditure$908,00010$956,00011$3.88M12$1.7M12$3.63M12
Free cash flow (derived)$43.4M7$22.4M8$17.1M9$19.9M9$15M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$85.7M13$77.4M14$70.3M15$68.6M16$44.1M16
Diluted shares9.7M9.8M9.5M9.5M8.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$57.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.03
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $57.18 of net worth that earned you $5.56 and generated $17.03 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
205% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 435%FY23 125%FY24 130%FY25 130%

It earned about 205% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.24 and $32.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$30.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.1M
Earnings Power Value
$11.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.54M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.79
Base0.0%$32.79
Bull5.0%$39.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027981 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034713 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108402 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027981 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034713 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108402 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027981 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034713 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108402 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027981 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034713 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108402 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005837 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027981 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034713 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108402 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)