MeritValue

BOSTON BEER CO INC

SAMdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BOSTON BEER CO INC earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $63.73 and $1,116.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.2B1$2.22B2$2.13B3$2.14B3$2.09B3
Net income$14.6M4$67.3M5$76.3M6$59.7M6$108.5M6
Operating cash flow$56.3M7$199.9M8$265.2M9$248.9M9$270.2M9
Capital expenditure$147.9M10$90.6M11$64.1M12$76.3M12$54.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$91.6M7$109.4M8$201.1M9$172.6M9$215.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$26.9M13$180.6M13$298.5M14$211.8M15$223.4M15
Diluted shares12.4M12.3M12.3M11.8M10.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$773.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$99.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$197.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $773.78 of net worth that earned you $99.18 and generated $197.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 8%FY23 10%FY24 8%FY25 17%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $63.73 and $1,116.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,116.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$201.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$619.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$201.1M
Earnings Power Value
$63.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$67.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$131.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $619.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$283.09
Base20.0%$619.8
Bull20.0%$619.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-021189 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026756 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-067467 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-021189 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026756 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-067467 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-021189 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026756 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-067467 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-021189 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026756 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-067467 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-021189 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-026756 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-067467 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)