MeritValue

SAIHEAT Ltd

SAIHdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

SAIHEAT Ltd earns about -47% on invested capital, and has bought back 85% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17M1$10.6M1$6.78M2$5.54M2$4.52M2
Net income−$16.7M3−$8.85M4−$6.12M5−$5.89M5−$6.45M5
Operating cash flow−$983,0006−$4.93M7−$3.13M8−$5.55M8−$7.62M8
Capital expenditure$3.97M9$1.87M10$5.05M11$713,00011—
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.95M6−$6.81M7−$8.17M8−$6.27M8—
Total debt———$2.12M12$3.68M12
Cash & equivalents$4.48M13$11.2M14$3.18M15$1.04M16$202,00016
Diluted shares12.4M1.3M1.6M1.7M1.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$35.15
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$20.04

10 shares is a claim on $40.29 of net worth that earned you −$35.15 last year, against $20.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-47% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -77%FY23 -35%FY24 -30%FY25 -47%

It earned an average -47% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−85% shares · 5y

Share count is down 85% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 74% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-031047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050380 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035379 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035765 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050380 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035379 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035765 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050380 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035379 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035765 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050380 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050380 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-031047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035379 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035765 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050380 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)