MeritValue

Science Applications International Corp

SAICdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Science Applications International Corp earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.08 and $79.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$7.39B1$7.7B2$7.44B3$7.48B3$7.26B3
Net income$277M4$300M5$477M5$362M5$358M6
Operating cash flow$518M7$532M8$396M9$494M9$609M9
Capital expenditure$36M10$25M11$27M12$36M12$32M12
Free cash flow (derived)$482M7$507M8$369M9$458M9$577M9
Total debt$5.04B13$4.75B14$4.2B15$4.44B16$4.97B16
Cash & equivalents$106M17$109M18$94M19$56M20$182M20
Diluted shares58.1M55.8M53.7M50.5M46.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$322.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$76.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$124.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,069.68

10 shares is a claim on $322.58 of net worth that earned you $76.99 and generated $124.09 of cash last year, against $1,069.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 4%FY26 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.08 and $79.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$27.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$458M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$458M
Earnings Power Value
$79.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$358M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.67
Base0.0%$37.67
Bull5.0%$71.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571123-24-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571123-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571123-26-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571123-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571123-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-30 · accession 0001571123-26-000029 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571123-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571123-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571123-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571123-24-000045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571123-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571123-26-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571123-23-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571123-24-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571123-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001571123-26-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571123-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571123-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571123-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001571123-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)