MeritValue

SAIA INC

SAIAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SAIA INC earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.13 and $137.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.29B1$2.79B2$2.88B3$3.21B3$3.23B3
Net income$253.2M4$357.4M5$354.9M6$362.1M6$255M6
Operating cash flow$382.6M7$473M8$577.9M9$583.7M9$595M9
Capital expenditure$285.7M10$367.4M11$439.9M12$1.04B12$567.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.8M7$105.6M8$138.1M9−$459.9M9$27.3M9
Total debt$013$014$015$194M16$163M16
Cash & equivalents$106.6M17$187.4M18$296.2M19$19.5M20$19.7M20
Diluted shares26.7M26.7M26.8M26.8M26.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$962.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$95.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$60.85

10 shares is a claim on $962.33 of net worth that earned you $95.21 and generated $10.2 of cash last year, against $60.85 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 26%FY23 22%FY24 15%FY25 10%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.13 and $137.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27.3M
Earnings Power Value
$137.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$354.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$143.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.23
Base0.0%$9.23
Bull5.0%$12.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019368 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025702 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019368 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025702 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019368 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025702 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019368 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025702 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004094 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019368 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025702 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067030 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019368 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025702 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)