XCF Global, Inc.

SAFXdata completeness 88%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

XCF Global, Inc. earns about 69% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$0¹	$20.8M²
Net income	−$24.1M³	$74M³
Operating cash flow	−$11.1M⁴	−$17.9M⁴
Capital expenditure	$28.7M⁵	—
Free cash flow (derived)	−$39.8M⁴	—
Total debt	$176,169⁶	$124.2M⁷
Cash & equivalents	$407,182⁸	$154,937⁸
Diluted shares	140.2M	142.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$2.65

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$5.2

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

$8.73

10 shares is a claim on $2.65 of net worth that earned you $5.2 last year, against $8.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

69% avg · 2y

FY24 -58%FY25 197%

It earned an average 69% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+1% shares · 2y

Share count is roughly flat over 2 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 70395% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)

Graham Number

$1.76

assumptions (1)

grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (DebtCurrent)
10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (LongTermDebt)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014280 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)