MeritValue

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC

SAFTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $49.71 and $200.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$884.9M1$797.6M2$931M3$1.12B3$1.26B3
Net income$130.7M4$46.6M5$18.9M6$70.7M6$99.3M6
Operating cash flow$141.4M7$44.3M8$52.1M9$128.7M9$194.5M9
Capital expenditure$8.23M10$2.09M11$1.78M12$4.37M12$2.51M12
Free cash flow (derived)$133.2M7$42.2M8$50.3M9$124.3M9$192M9
Total debt——$30M13$30M14$50M15
Cash & equivalents$63.6M16$25.3M17$38.2M18$59M19$73.9M19
Diluted shares14.9M14.7M14.7M14.7M14.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$605.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$130.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$33.91

10 shares is a claim on $605.16 of net worth that earned you $67.31 and generated $130.21 of cash last year, against $33.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 6%FY23 2%FY24 9%FY25 11%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 67% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $49.71 and $200.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$200.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.7%
  • fcfBase$124.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$169.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.7%
  • fcfBase$124.3M
Earnings Power Value
$49.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$95.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $169.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$122.09
Base7.7%$169.33
Bull12.7%$207.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172052-24-000008 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172052-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001172052-26-000005 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172052-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172052-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001172052-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172052-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172052-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001172052-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172052-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172052-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001172052-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001172052-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001172052-26-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001172052-26-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001172052-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001172052-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001172052-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001172052-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)