MeritValue

Safehold Inc.

SAFEdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Safehold Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$187M1$270.3M2$352.6M3$365.7M3$385.6M3
Net income$73.1M4$135.4M5−$55M6$105.8M6$114.5M6
Operating cash flow$26.9M7$64.9M8$15.4M9$37.9M9$47.8M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.57B10$3.52B11$4.05B12$4.32B13$4.59B13
Cash & equivalents$29.6M14$20.1M15$18.8M16$8.35M16$21.7M16
Diluted shares55.3M62.4M66.7M71.5M71.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$335.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.95
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$638.83

10 shares is a claim on $335.48 of net worth that earned you $15.95 last year, against $638.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 2%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 78% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$15.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$105.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001095651-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001095651-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001095651-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001095651-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001095651-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001095651-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001095651-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001095651-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001095651-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001675 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001095651-24-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001095651-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001095651-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001095651-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001095651-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001095651-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)