MeritValue

Sabre Corp

SABRdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Sabre Corp earns about -3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.69B1$2.54B2$2.64B3$2.74B3$2.77B3
Net income−$928.5M4−$435.4M5−$527.6M6−$278.8M6$524.6M6
Operating cash flow−$414.7M7−$276.5M8$67.4M9$70.2M9−$108.9M9
Capital expenditure$54.3M10$69.5M11$80.9M12$79.5M12$82.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$469M7−$346M8−$13.6M9−$9.28M9−$191.8M9
Total debt$9.54B13$9.51B14$9.67B15$10.4B16$8.95B16
Cash & equivalents$978.4M17$794.9M18$648.2M19$724.5M20$791.6M20
Diluted shares320.9M326.7M346.6M383.7M391.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$26.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.39
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$228.37

10 shares is a claim on −$26.46 of net worth that earned you $13.39 and generated −$4.9 of cash last year, against $228.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -1%FY23 -0%FY24 -3%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597033-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597033-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008800 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597033-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597033-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008800 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597033-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597033-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008800 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597033-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597033-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008800 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597033-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597033-24-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001597033-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008800 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597033-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597033-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001597033-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008800 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)