MeritValue

SentinelOne, Inc.

Sdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SentinelOne, Inc. earns about -18% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 90% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.23 and $2.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$204.8M1$422.2M2$621.2M3$821.5M3$1B3
Net income−$271.1M4−$378.7M5−$338.7M6−$288.4M6−$450.7M6
Operating cash flow−$95.6M7−$193.3M8−$68.4M9$33.7M9$76.6M9
Capital expenditure$3.65M10$4.95M11$1.3M12$1.86M12$713,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$99.2M7−$198.2M8−$69.7M9$31.9M9$75.9M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$1.67B14$137.9M15$256.7M16$186.6M17$169.6M17
Diluted shares174.1M277.8M294.9M314.8M330.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$43.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $43.54 of net worth that earned you −$13.65 and generated $2.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-18% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 -20%FY24 -20%FY25 -15%FY26 -17%

It earned about -18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+90% shares · 5y

Share count is up 90% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.23 and $2.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.89
Base5.0%$2.23
Bull10.0%$2.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001583708-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001583708-25-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001583708-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001583708-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001583708-25-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001583708-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001583708-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001583708-25-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001583708-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001583708-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001583708-25-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001583708-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001583708-22-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001583708-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001583708-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001583708-25-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001583708-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)