MeritValue

Ryerson Holding Corp

RYZdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ryerson Holding Corp earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.1 and $47.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.68B1$6.32B2$5.11B3$4.6B3$4.57B3
Net income$294.3M4$391M5$145.7M6−$8.6M6−$56.4M6
Operating cash flow$35M7$501.2M8$365.1M9$204.9M9$87M9
Capital expenditure$59.3M10$105.1M11$121.9M12$99.6M12$51.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$24.3M7$396.1M8$243.2M9$105.3M9$35.5M9
Total debt$639.3M13$5.8M14$8.2M15$700,00016$1.9M16
Cash & equivalents$51.2M17$39.2M18$54.3M19$27.7M20$26.9M20
Diluted shares38.9M38.3M35.6M33.2M32.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$234.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.59

10 shares is a claim on $234.49 of net worth that earned you −$17.56 and generated $11.05 of cash last year, against $0.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 46%FY23 17%FY24 -1%FY25 -8%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.1 and $47.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$105.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$105.3M
Earnings Power Value
$47.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$145.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.62
Base0.0%$47.62
Bull5.0%$58.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024199 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062397 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024199 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062397 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024199 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062397 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024199 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062397 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-006263 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018005 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024199 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062397 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003768 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024199 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062397 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)