RAYONIER INC
RYNdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on fileRAYONIER INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.33 and $16.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.11B1 | $907.8M2 | $787M3 | $986.4M3 | $483M3 |
| Net income | $152.6M4 | $107.1M5 | $173.5M6 | $359.1M6 | $474.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $325.1M7 | $269.2M8 | $298.4M9 | $261.6M9 | $256.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $76M10 | $74.8M10 | $95.5M11 | $102.5M11 | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $249.1M7 | $194.4M8 | $202.9M9 | $159.1M9 | — |
| Total debt | $1.37B12 | $1.51B13 | $1.37B14 | $1.04B15 | $1.05B15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $362.2M16 | $114.3M17 | $207.7M18 | $303.1M19 | $842.9M19 |
| Diluted shares | 145.3M | 150.2M | 151.1M | 152.1M | 158.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $139.23 of net worth that earned you $29.89 last year, against $65.86 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 24% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.33 and $16.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$194.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$194.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$173.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $16.22 |
| Base | 0.0% | $16.22 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $20.46 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000052827-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000052827-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000052827-26-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000052827-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000052827-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000052827-26-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000052827-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000052827-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000052827-26-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000052827-23-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000052827-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000052827-23-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000052827-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000052827-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000052827-26-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000052827-23-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000052827-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000052827-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000052827-26-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)