MeritValue

RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS INC.

RYAMdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS INC. earns about -8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.41B1$1.72B2$1.64B3$1.63B3$1.47B3
Net income$66.4M4−$14.9M5−$101.8M6−$38.7M6−$420.7M6
Operating cash flow$233.2M7$68.8M8$136.3M9$203.6M9$23.9M9
Capital expenditure$95.2M10————
Free cash flow (derived)$138M7————
Total debt$75.4M11$14.6M12$25.3M13$23.4M14$20.9M14
Cash & equivalents$253.3M15$151.8M16$75.8M17$125.2M18$75.4M18
Diluted shares63.6M63.9M65.1M65.7M66.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$62.99
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.13

10 shares is a claim on $47.4 of net worth that earned you −$62.99 last year, against $3.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 5%FY23 -7%FY24 -6%FY25 -29%

It earned an average -8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 72% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597672-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597672-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001597672-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597672-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597672-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001597672-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597672-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597672-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001597672-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597672-22-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597672-22-000011 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597672-24-000006 (DebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001597672-25-000008 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001597672-26-000010 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001597672-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001597672-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001597672-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001597672-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)