MeritValue

RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC

RYAAYdata completeness 50%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC earns about 7% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€1.64B1€4.8B2€10.8B3€13.4B3€13.9B3
Net income—————
Operating cash flow—————
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt€5.43B4€5.08B5€4.12B6€2.75B6€2.68B6
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares01.13B1.14B1.14B1.06B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€66.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
—
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
€25.22

10 shares is a claim on €66.14 of net worth, against €25.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 -3%FY23 13%FY24 19%FY25 17%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has fallen 51% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 0 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
$14.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001558370-23-012101 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001558370-24-009521 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-007966 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001558370-23-012101 (Borrowings)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001558370-24-009521 (Borrowings)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-007966 (Borrowings)