MeritValue

RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

RXRXdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about -159% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 257% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.2M1$39.8M2$44.6M3$58.8M3$74.7M3
Net income−$186.5M4−$239.5M5−$328.1M6−$463.7M6−$644.8M6
Operating cash flow−$158.6M7−$83.5M8−$287.8M9−$359.2M9−$371.8M9
Capital expenditure$39.8M10$37.1M11$12M12$13.7M12$6.47M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$198.4M7−$120.6M8−$299.7M9−$372.9M9−$378.3M9
Total debt$723,00013————
Cash & equivalents$285.1M14$549.9M15$391.6M16$594.4M17$743.3M17
Diluted shares125.3M175.5M207.9M274.2M447.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.41
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $25.27 of net worth that earned you −$14.41 and generated −$8.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-159% avg · 5y
FY21 -56%FY22 —FY23 -365%FY24 -83%FY25 -131%

It earned an average -159% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+257% shares · 5y

Share count is up 257% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601830-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601830-25-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601830-26-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601830-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601830-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601830-26-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601830-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601830-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601830-26-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601830-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601830-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601830-26-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601830-22-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601830-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601830-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601830-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601830-26-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)