MeritValue

RXO, Inc.

RXOdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

RXO, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 46% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.69B1$4.8B2$3.93B3$4.55B3$5.74B3
Net income$150M4$92M5$4M6−$290M6−$100M6
Operating cash flow$155M7$310M8$89M9−$12M9$51M9
Capital expenditure$39M10$57M11$64M12$45M12$59M12
Free cash flow (derived)$116M7$253M8$25M9−$57M9−$8M9
Total debt$013$4M14$3M15$17M16$17M16
Cash & equivalents$29M17$98M18$5M19$35M20$17M20
Diluted shares115.2M115.8M119.5M133.4M168.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$91.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.94
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.01

10 shares is a claim on $91.47 of net worth that earned you −$5.94 and generated −$0.47 of cash last year, against $1.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 19%FY23 1%FY24 -15%FY25 -6%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+46% shares · 5y

Share count is up 46% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001929561-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001929561-25-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001929561-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001929561-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001929561-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001929561-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001929561-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001929561-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001929561-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001929561-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001929561-25-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001929561-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001929561-23-000032 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001929561-24-000032 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001929561-25-000044 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001929561-26-000013 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001929561-23-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001929561-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001929561-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001929561-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)