MeritValue

Runway Growth Finance Corp.

RWAYdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Runway Growth Finance Corp. earns about 9% on equity, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$45.6M1$32.3M2$44.3M3$73.6M3$34M3
Operating cash flow−$61.2M4−$359.8M5$112.4M6$69.8M6$186.3M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$79.5M7$549M8$510.1M9$552.3M10$435.3M10
Cash & equivalents$4.7M11$5.76M12$2.97M13$5.75M14$18.2M14
Diluted shares34.2M41.0M40.5M38.9M36.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$132.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.28
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$118.63

10 shares is a claim on $132.15 of net worth that earned you $9.28 last year, against $118.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 14%FY25 7%

It earned an average 9% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 448% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$44.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027913 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042625 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104117 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027913 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042625 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104117 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005814 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027913 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042625 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104117 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005814 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027913 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042625 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)